In-depth analysis of the active and new addresses
As the basic data of the public chain, the active and new address is a very important index, which can not only reflect the intrinsic value of the public block chain, but have a high correlation with the price. The related analysis is also helpful to the research on the valuation of crypto currency.
What is active and new address?
An active address is an address that has made transaction on a daily basis, in other words, this indicator can reflect how many separate addresses have made on-chain transaction each day.
Types of on-chain transaction:
- OTC transaction including BTC,ETH and Tokens
- Deposit and withdraw in exchanges
- Smart contract calling
- Candy airdrop
A new address is the address where the first transaction took place, in other words, once an address generates a transaction, it marks its birth. Through this indicator, we can understand the growth trend of a project.
How can we understand these indicators?
The increase in the number of active addresses can be interpreted as the growth of active users, and it is a promising sign that a project can maintain long-term growth.
The number of new addresses can also be regarded as a special case of active addresses.Comparing addresses as users, if the proportion of new users among DAU continues to rise, then we can say the project is developing and expanding and more people are getting involved.
In short, the long-term steady rise in basic indicators is great, but what we must emphasize is the “long-term” growth. It is normal to fluctuate in the short term, except the violently ones.
A short-term surge in indicators, for example, is not necessarily a good sign, but is more likely to be a flash in the pan. Many events will lead to a surge in some short-term basic indicators, especially news of a gimmick nature that does not have much support for the long-term development of the project or industry.It do attract people’s attention in short period, however,as the hot spots gradually dissipate, the decline in attention will also lead to a decline in the indicators.
Let’s look at a few data charts:
The above chart shows the new and active address of bitcoin in the past three months,as you can see, both indicators have maintained a stable trend with an slight increase.
Compared with bitcoin, ethereum’s new and active indicators have fluctuated more significantly in the past three months, rising slightly since March to the beginning of the year.
The number of new and active addresses in bitcoin cash has surged significantly in the past two months, with active addresses growing slightly more than new addresses in February, indicating that existing users have contributed more on-chain transactions. But the growth in new addresses has been significant since March, meaning that bitcoin cash is gradually attracting more new users.
If the proportion of new users reflects the growth in the impact of the project, is it the best indicator for project quantification?
To answer this question, we need to do more in-depth analysis. The new address is equivalent to the “one-day-old” address, in other words, we use the one-day address to represent the new user, however, the “two-day-old” address should also belong to the new address, should also be able to treated as new user.
So the question is,how to definite a new address on time basis? What is the impact of the proportion of “new users” with different thresholds on the indicators? Will this indicator influence the price?
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